PPOLYMARKET

Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Yes1%

Vol$503.37

Outcomes2

1%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

NoNo Price

99¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$503.37

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jul 15, 2026

less than a minute ago

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Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

No

99¢

|

Vol

$503.37

|

Outcomes

2

Yes1.1¢

No99.0¢

Price History

Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

Resolves Today

July 15, 2026 • 9:54 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

July 15, 2026

9:54 PM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.