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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Yes 6.5%

Vol$1.04M

SnapshotOct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

Yes 6.5%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

YesYes Price

6.5¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$1.04M

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Yes

6.5¢

|

Vol

$1.04M

|

Outcomes

2

Yes6.5¢

No93.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 6.5%. Snapshot Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market details

Status: active
Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Created: Aug 10, 2026, 10:39 PM UTC
Reported volume: $1.04M
Price snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

The listed close is not a settlement guarantee. Check the provider for current prices before trading.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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