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US recession by end of 2026?

Yes8%

Vol$2.30M

Outcomes2

8%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

US recession by end of 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

US recession by end of 2026?

Part of: US recession by end of 2026?

NoNo Price

93¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$2.30M

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 31, 2027

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

No

93¢

|

Vol

$2.30M

|

Outcomes

2

Yes7.5¢

No92.5¢

Price History

US recession by end of 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

108 Days Left

January 31, 2027 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 31, 2027

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.