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Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Yes 23.5%

Vol$533.3K

SnapshotOct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Yes 23.5%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveEconomics

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Part of: How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

YesYes Price

23.5¢

VolTotal Volume

$533.3K

Outcomes

Ends

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

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Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Yes

23.5¢

Vol

$533.3K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes23.5¢

No76.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 23.5%. Snapshot Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Resolution Info