GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomics

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Name: How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$287.38K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Vol

$287.38K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $287.38K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $287.38K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Poly	44%
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Poly	30%
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Poly	22%
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$287.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). Thi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

Thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain ope"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $287.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $56.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $101.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $47.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $68.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $31.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $17.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomics