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Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Yes14%-7.5%

Vol$30.81K

Outcomes2

14%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Part of: Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

NoNo Price

86¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$30.81K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

No

86¢

|

Vol

$30.81K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes14.0¢

No86.0¢

Price History

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

117 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.