This PredictPedia contract asks whether a hurricane will make landfall in Hawaii before 2027. Under the contract rules, it resolves "Yes" if any storm makes landfall anywhere in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories [1]. The window runs from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET [1]. The rules define a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, and a landfall as occurring when the storm's surface center intersects the coastline [1]. The storm must already be at hurricane strength at that moment for the landfall to count [1]. The rules define "Hawaii" broadly. It covers the main Hawaiian Islands and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument [1]. The contract also specifies that the time of physical landfall governs, not the time a confirming advisory is issued [1]. Wind speed at landfall is taken from the advisory in effect closest to the reported landfall time, or from the most recent advisory before landfall if no advisory covers that exact moment [1]. The rules also address later corrections. The market may resolve on the initial advisory reporting a qualifying landfall, even if a later advisory, best-track revision, or reanalysis lowers the storm's intensity at landfall [1]. If a later advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that the initial reporting missed, the market resolves "Yes" based on that correction [1]. The price snapshot for this single market was 0.07 for "Yes" and 0.93 for "No" [1]. These figures are observed prices from a saved provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The market's status was recorded as active [1].

Historical Context

A Wikipedia overview of the 2026 tropical cyclone season, retrieved on October 23, 2026, reported that 115 tropical cyclones had formed so far across seven basins and that the accumulated cyclone energy index was 826.2 units as of October 17 [2]. That page describes the season to date and does not identify any Hawaii landfall, so it does not by itself indicate whether this contract's condition has been met [2]. A separate Wikipedia page, retrieved the same day, describes the 2026-2027 El Nino event. It states that the World Meteorological Organization declared the onset on June 2, 2026, that it is classified as a very strong El Nino, and that it is expected to peak in November or December and last through early 2027 [3]. These are historical and background descriptions from encyclopedia snapshots, not a current forecast for Hawaii, and the sources do not connect that event to hurricane activity near Hawaii.

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