Yes96%-0.2%
Vol$3.16K
Outcomes2
Event
MarketPOLYMARKETactive
MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?
Part of: Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score by December 31?YesYes Price
96¢
|
VolTotal Volume
$3.16K
|
Outcomes
2
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
in 12 monthsWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?
Yes
96¢
|
Vol
$3.16K
|
Outcomes
2
Yes95.8¢
No4.3¢
Price History
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?
No historical data available
Price history will appear here when available
Resolution Information
Status
Active
Expected Resolution
December 31, 2026
12:00 AM GMT+0
UMA Protocol
Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.
Learn moreAccuracy
99.7%
Resolved
15,420
Avg Time
< 2 hours
Disputes
0.3%
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Still Active
This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
Market Stats
Resolution Countdown
348 Days Left
December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Last Updated
less than a minute ago