Yes5%+1.3%
Vol$111.88K
Outcomes2
Event
MarketPOLYMARKETactive
MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Part of: Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?NoNo Price
95¢
|
VolTotal Volume
$111.88K
|
Outcomes
2
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
in 12 monthsWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
No
95¢
|
Vol
$111.88K
|
Outcomes
2
Yes5.4¢
No94.6¢
Price History
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
No historical data available
Price history will appear here when available
Resolution Information
Status
Active
Expected Resolution
December 31, 2026
12:00 AM GMT+0
UMA Protocol
Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.
Learn moreAccuracy
99.7%
Resolved
15,420
Avg Time
< 2 hours
Disputes
0.3%
Resolution Criteria
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Still Active
This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
Market Stats
Resolution Countdown
349 Days Left
December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Last Updated
less than a minute ago