Yes22%
Vol$78.20
Outcomes2
Event
MarketPOLYMARKETactive
MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?
Part of: April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)NoNo Price
78¢
|
VolTotal Volume
$78.20
|
Outcomes
2
Ends
May 10, 2026
in about 1 monthWill global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?
No
78¢
|
Vol
$78.20
|
Outcomes
2
Yes22.0¢
No78.0¢
Price History
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?
No historical data available
Price history will appear here when available
Resolution Information
Status
Active
Expected Resolution
May 10, 2026
12:00 AM GMT+0
UMA Protocol
Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.
Learn moreAccuracy
99.7%
Resolved
15,420
Avg Time
< 2 hours
Disputes
0.3%
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Still Active
This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
Market Stats
Resolution Countdown
41 Days Left
May 10, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Last Updated
less than a minute ago