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Will Isaias peak at Category 5?

Yes1%+0.4%

Vol$782.45

Outcomes2

1%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Isaias peak at Category 5?

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Will Isaias peak at Category 5?

Part of: How strong will Isaias be?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$782.45

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 21, 2026

in 9 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will Isaias peak at Category 5?

Will Isaias peak at Category 5?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$782.45

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.5¢

No99.5¢

Price History

Will Isaias peak at Category 5?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

9 Days Left

October 21, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

How strong will Isaias be?

How strong will Isaias be?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 21, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Isaias (NHC designation AL092026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Isaias in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Isaias never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes". Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Isaias will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Isaias dissipates. If Isaias has not dissipated by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Isaias in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the issuing center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Isaias's intensity published after Isaias dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Isaias dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Isaias by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.