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Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?

Yes 12.5%

Vol$54.6K

SnapshotOct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Yes 12.5%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

YesYes Price

12.5¢

VolTotal Volume

$54.6K

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?

Yes

12.5¢

Vol

$54.6K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes12.5¢

No87.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 12.5%. Snapshot Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirming that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify. Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Resolution Info