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Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft?

Yes 8.1%

Vol$2.2K

SnapshotOct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Yes 8.1%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveClimate

Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft?

Part of: How low will Lake Mead drop?

YesYes Price

8.1¢

VolTotal Volume

$2.2K

Outcomes

Ends

Apr 15, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft?

Yes

8.1¢

Vol

$2.2K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes8.1¢

No91.9¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 8.1%. Snapshot Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Apr 15, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

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Resolution Info