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Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?

Yes1%

Vol$162.57

Outcomes2

1%

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Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?

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Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?

Part of: Second-best AI Lab end of December?

NoNo Price

99¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$162.57

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?

Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?

No

99¢

|

Vol

$162.57

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.5¢

No99.5¢

Price History

Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

80 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Second-best AI Lab end of December?

Second-best AI Lab end of December?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.