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Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026?

Yes26%-0.5%

Vol$187.60

Outcomes2

26%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026?

Part of: New MAI thinking model released by...?

NoNo Price

74¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$187.60

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 1, 2026

in 25 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026?

No

74¢

|

Vol

$187.60

|

Outcomes

2

Yes26.0¢

No74.0¢

Price History

Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

25 Days Left

October 01, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 01, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1. Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1. Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.