Yes26%-0.5%
Vol$228.26K
Outcomes2
Event
MarketPOLYMARKETactive
MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Part of: Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?NoNo Price
74¢
|
VolTotal Volume
$228.26K
|
Outcomes
2
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
in 6 monthsWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
No
74¢
|
Vol
$228.26K
|
Outcomes
2
Yes26.0¢
No74.0¢
Price History
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
No historical data available
Price history will appear here when available
Resolution Information
Status
Active
Expected Resolution
June 30, 2026
12:00 AM GMT+0
UMA Protocol
Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.
Learn moreAccuracy
99.7%
Resolved
15,420
Avg Time
< 2 hours
Disputes
0.3%
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Market Still Active
This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
Market Stats
Resolution Countdown
165 Days Left
June 30, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Last Updated
less than a minute ago