PPOLYMARKET

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Yes16%-1.0%

Vol$213.54K

Outcomes2

16%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

NoNo Price

84¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$213.54K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 6 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

No

84¢

|

Vol

$213.54K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes16.0¢

No84.0¢

Price History

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

169 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/D8z4nAHJuu6DW8nX9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.