$91.50K
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$91.50K
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to
Prediction markets show traders are nearly certain Russia will capture the entire municipality of Pokrovsk by March 31. The current probability is at 100%. This means traders collectively believe it is virtually guaranteed to happen within the next few weeks. The market tracking this specific deadline has seen millions of dollars wagered, indicating strong consensus and high attention on this outcome.
Two main factors explain this near-certain forecast. First, Pokrovsk is a key logistics and railway hub in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Its capture would represent a significant strategic advance for Russia, extending control along a critical axis toward larger cities like Kramatorsk. Second, recent military maps from independent analysts like the Institute for the Study of War show Russian forces making steady, incremental gains in the villages surrounding Pokrovsk. Over the past several months, these advances have gradually tightened a semi-circle around the city.
The historical context also matters. The battle for this area is part of a broader, grinding Russian offensive that began after the fall of Avdiivka in February 2024. Russian tactics have relied heavily on overwhelming artillery fire and incremental infantry assaults, a costly but often effective approach against Ukrainian forces who are frequently outgunned and short on ammunition.
The critical date is March 31, 2025. The market resolves based on the ISW map updated by 11:59 PM ET on that day. Any major shift before then would require a sudden and dramatic change in the frontline. Watch for official Ukrainian military reports or major Western announcements about new military aid deliveries. A large, rapid infusion of artillery shells or long-range weapons for Ukraine could theoretically slow the Russian advance, but given the short timeline, most traders see that as too little, too late to save Pokrovsk.
For short-term military outcomes with clear, map-based resolutions, prediction markets have a decent track record. They effectively aggregate intelligence from thousands of participants watching satellite imagery, soldier reports, and analyst maps. However, they can be slow to price in sudden, unexpected events like a Ukrainian tactical counterattack or a major political decision that changes battlefield dynamics. In this case, the 100% probability reflects extreme confidence, but it also means the market sees no plausible path for Ukraine to hold the city for another two weeks.
The prediction market assigns a 100% probability that Russia will capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31. This price indicates total certainty among traders that the event has already occurred or will definitively occur before the deadline. With $5 million in volume across related markets, this is a highly liquid and decisively resolved bet. The market is effectively closed, awaiting official settlement.
The 100% price directly reflects battlefield realities reported by multiple war analysts. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose maps determine this market's resolution, has consistently shown Russian advances west of Avdiivka since its fall in February 2024. Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub along the E50 highway, has been under severe and sustained pressure. By late March 2025, numerous frontline reports suggested Russian forces had entered the city's outskirts and made significant territorial gains. The market price converged on "Yes" as these operational reports made a Ukrainian defense of the entire municipality appear untenable within the timeframe.
For this specific market, the odds cannot change. Trading has concluded with an apparent consensus on the outcome. The only remaining variable is the official confirmation from the ISW map update that will trigger market resolution. Any dispute would center on the precise definition of "the entirety of the municipality" being shaded red. A partial capture or a last-minute Ukrainian counterattack that holds a sliver of territory could theoretically create a resolution challenge, but the market's 100% price shows traders view this as an extreme improbability. The focus now shifts to later-dated markets, such as the one for capture by September 30, 2025, which will price the sustainability of the Russian advance and Ukraine's capacity for stabilization.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential capture of Lyman, a city in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, by Russian military forces by a specified deadline. The outcome is determined by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) daily interactive map, which visually represents territorial control in Ukraine. For a 'Yes' resolution, the entire Lyman municipality must be shaded red, indicating Russian control, on the ISW map by 11:59 PM ET on the resolution date. The market provides a quantified, real-time assessment of a specific tactical objective within the broader Russo-Ukrainian War. Lyman's strategic value stems from its position as a key railway and road junction in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. Control of the city offers logistical advantages for further operations toward larger urban centers like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The battle for Lyman has been a focal point since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with the city changing hands multiple times. Interest in this market reflects broader attention on the war's momentum in the Donbas, a primary theater of conflict where incremental territorial gains are heavily contested. The use of the ISW map as an objective, third-party arbiter adds credibility to the market's resolution process, attracting participants analyzing military developments.
Lyman, known as Krasnyi Lyman until 2016, has been a strategic transport hub since the Soviet era. Its railway station connects lines to Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sloviansk. The city first became a major battleground in 2014 following Russia's annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in the Donbas. Pro-Russian separatists captured Lyman in June 2014, but Ukrainian forces retook it in July of the same year, establishing a front line that remained largely static for eight years. The city's pre-war population was approximately 20,000. Following Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Lyman was again targeted. Russian forces captured the city on May 27, 2022, after a prolonged siege. This capture provided Russia a foothold for further advances toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the administrative centers of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast. However, in a major reversal, Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman on October 1, 2022, during the successful Kharkiv counteroffensive. This victory was a significant symbolic and strategic blow to Russia, leading to public criticism of the Russian military leadership by figures like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Since its liberation, Lyman has remained under Ukrainian control but under constant threat, situated close to the active front line.
The battle for Lyman is a microcosm of the wider war of attrition in the Donbas. Its outcome influences the security of a much larger area. If Russia captures Lyman, it gains a fortified position to launch artillery strikes on Ukrainian supply lines running to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, cities with a combined pre-war population of over half a million people. This would force Ukraine to dedicate more resources to defensive operations, potentially limiting its capacity for counteroffensives elsewhere. Politically, the fall of Lyman would be portrayed by the Kremlin as evidence of successful 'special military operation' progress, potentially boosting domestic morale. For Ukraine and its allies, losing a city liberated in a celebrated 2022 victory would be a demoralizing setback, possibly affecting Western assessments of Ukrainian military prospects and the continued flow of military aid. The human cost is severe for the remaining civilian population, who face artillery bombardment, displacement, and potential occupation.
As of late 2023 and into 2024, Lyman remains under Ukrainian control but is situated on a highly active sector of the front line. Russian forces, including assault units from the Russian Armed Forces and remnants of the Wagner Group, have conducted persistent offensive operations in the forests and villages to the east and north of the city, such as near Torske and Makiivka. These attacks aim to envelop Lyman and set conditions for a direct assault. Ukrainian forces have constructed extensive defensive fortifications, including trench lines and anti-tank obstacles, in the area. The situation is characterized by intense artillery duels and small-scale infantry clashes. The ISW's daily maps consistently show the Lyman municipality as a contested area, with the front line running close to its eastern outskirts.
The Institute for the Study of War's interactive map is a daily updated visualization of assessed territorial control in Ukraine. It is considered highly reliable by analysts because it synthesizes open-source intelligence, including geolocated combat footage, official statements from both sides, and satellite imagery. The ISW is transparent about its methodology and often notes areas of contested control.
Lyman is a critical logistics node. It sits at the intersection of major highways and railway lines that connect the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Siversk. Controlling Lyman allows an army to efficiently supply forces for further advances deeper into the Donbas region or to block an adversary's movements.
Before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Lyman was under Ukrainian government control. It had been retaken from Russian-backed separatists by Ukrainian forces in July 2014 and remained part of Ukrainian-held territory in Donetsk Oblast for nearly eight years.
The market resolves based solely on the shading on the specified ISW story map. If the entire polygon for Lyman is shaded red (indicating Russian control) by the deadline, it resolves to 'Yes'. If any part is shaded blue (Ukrainian control), pink (contested), or has no data, it resolves to 'No'.
Russian operations around Lyman have involved combined arms forces from the Central Military District, including motorized rifle and tank units. Elements of the Airborne Forces (VDV) and assault detachments from the reconstituted Wagner Group have also been reported in the area, often leading infantry attacks.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 68% |
| Poly | 25% |
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