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Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

Yes72%

Vol$131.49K

Outcomes2

72%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

Part of: Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?

YesYes Price

72¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$131.49K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 1, 2026

in 25 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

Yes

72¢

|

Vol

$131.49K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes72.0¢

No28.0¢

Price History

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

25 Days Left

October 01, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 01, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.