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Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Yes76%+1.5%

Vol$260.55K

Outcomes2

76%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Part of: Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

YesYes Price

76¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$260.55K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 4 months

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Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Yes

76¢

|

Vol

$260.55K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes76.0¢

No24.0¢

Price History

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

116 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 11:59 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

11:59 PM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.