GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Name: Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$389.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Vol

$389.67K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $389.67K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $389.67K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Poly	76%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?	Poly	10%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?	Poly	8%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?	Poly	7%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?	Poly	2%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$389.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF Po

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. 

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF Po

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. 

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker shi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $363.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $183.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.98)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $49.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $19.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $17.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $260.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics