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Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?

Yes 3.5%

Vol$16.9K

SnapshotOct 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

Yes 3.5%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveEconomy

Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?

Part of: US Trade Deficit in 2026?

YesYes Price

3.5¢

VolTotal Volume

$16.9K

Outcomes

Ends

May 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?

Yes

3.5¢

Vol

$16.9K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes3.5¢

No96.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 3.5%. Snapshot Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: May 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.

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Resolution Info