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Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?

Yes 0.7%

Vol$662.11

SnapshotOct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Yes 0.7%

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Event

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Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?

Part of: Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

YesYes Price

0.7¢

VolTotal Volume

$662.11

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 7, 2027, 4:59 PM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?

Yes

0.7¢

Vol

$662.11

Outcomes

Trade

Yes0.7¢

No99.4¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 0.7%. Snapshot Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 7, 2027, 4:59 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Resolution Info