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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

Name: Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
End: 2027-01-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

Vol

$3.18K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.18K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.18K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	Poly	75%
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?	Poly	13%
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?	Poly	10%
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.6 – 8.7?	Poly	5%
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 9.0 or above?	Poly	3%
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?	Poly	2%
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.8 – 8.9?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$3.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (US

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 4, 2027 (121 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (US

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.43)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $169
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $251
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.6 – 8.7?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $271
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.8 – 8.9?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $128
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 9.0 or above?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $121
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience