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Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?

Yes0%

Vol$1.33K

Outcomes2

0%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?

Part of: Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$1.33K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Nov 7, 2026

in 2 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$1.33K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.1¢

No99.9¢

Price History

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

61 Days Left

November 07, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

November 07, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.