GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

Name: Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
End: 2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$52.44K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

Vol

$52.44K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $52.44K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $52.44K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(18)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Poly	45%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Poly	21%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?	Poly	14%
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	Poly	9%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT?	Poly	2%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?	Poly	2%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour?	Poly	1%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Maori?	Poly	1%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + Maori?	Poly	1%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + Labour?	Poly	1%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + NZF?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Maori + NZF?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + Maori?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF + Maori?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF + Maori?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$52.44K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, witho

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 7, 2026 (63 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, witho

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $52.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $317.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Maori?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + NZF?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Maori + NZF?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + Maori?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + Maori?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF + Maori?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF + Maori?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + Labour?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics