BackPPOLYMARKET

Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 40% to 59.99%?

Yes21%+2.5%

Vol$3.46K

Outcomes2

21%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 40% to 59.99%?

Part of: Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

NoNo Price

80¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$3.46K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

May 1, 2027

in 7 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 40% to 59.99%?

No

80¢

|

Vol

$3.46K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes20.5¢

No79.5¢

Price History

Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 40% to 59.99%?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

201 Days Left

May 01, 2027 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

May 01, 2027

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season. For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above. For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA. This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%". The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.