Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Name: Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
End: 2027-05-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.53K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Vol

$14.53K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.53K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.53K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?	Poly	28%
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%?	Poly	23%
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 40% to 59.99%?	Poly	22%
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 60% or more?	Poly	13%
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be under 5%?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$14.53K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season. For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2027 (202 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.

For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.

For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.78)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be under 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 40% to 59.99%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 60% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate