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Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Yes 4.9%

Vol$87.2K

SnapshotOct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

Yes 4.9%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Part of: U.S. nuclear test by...?

YesYes Price

4.9¢

VolTotal Volume

$87.2K

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Yes

4.9¢

Vol

$87.2K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes4.9¢

No95.1¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 4.9%. Snapshot Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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Resolution Info