PPOLYMARKET

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Yes6%

Vol$145.31K

Outcomes2

6%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

NoNo Price

95¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$145.31K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 6 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No

95¢

|

Vol

$145.31K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes5.5¢

No94.5¢

Price History

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

168 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.