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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Yes6%

Vol$2.65M

Outcomes2

6%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

NoNo Price

95¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$2.65M

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

No

95¢

|

Vol

$2.65M

|

Outcomes

2

Yes5.5¢

No94.5¢

Price History

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

129 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.