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How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

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How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
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Vol

1.5K contracts

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Markets

7

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Market snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

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No data available

All Markets(7)
MarketOutcome price
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?
Yes 97.0%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?
Yes 84.5%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?
Yes 65.0%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 17 from February 2026 to February 2027?
Yes 47.0%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?
Yes 33.5%

Event Overview

from February 2026 to February 2027 If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above X from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The percent decline equals 100 ×, February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment, ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
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  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading
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Markets (7)

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KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome97.0%
Yes
Volume18 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details
KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 10% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome84.5%
Yes
Volume640.7 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details
KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 15% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome65.0%
Yes
Volume278.81 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details
KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 17 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 17 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 17% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome47.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details
KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 20% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome33.5%
Yes
Volume510.55 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details
KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 25% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome23.0%
Yes
Volume50.02 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details
KALSHIOther
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 30 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 30 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 30% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Yes outcome11.5%
Yes
Volume24.88 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateSep 29, 2027
View Details

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