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How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

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How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

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6 markets tracked

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?	Kalshi	95%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?	Kalshi	85%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?	Kalshi	60%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?	Kalshi	33%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?	Kalshi	19%
Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 30 from February 2026 to February 2027?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

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95%

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About This Event

from February 2026 to February 2027 If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above X from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The percent decline equals 100 ×, February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment, ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** from February 2026 to February 2027

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above X from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The percent decline equals 100 ×, February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment, ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollmen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 30 from February 2026 to February 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

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KALSHI

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollmen

KALSHI

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 10% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollme

KALSHI

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 15% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollme

KALSHI

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 20% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollme

KALSHI

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 25% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollme

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How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

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Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

Markets (6)

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

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Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027?

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