Skip to main content
PredictPedia
K

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Trade
Event Group
EventKALSHI

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?
|
Vol

7.3K contracts

|
Markets

18

Trade

Market snapshot: Oct 16, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (OpenAI)

kalshi

No data available

All Markets(18)
MarketOutcome price
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (OpenAI)
Yes 89.0%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic)
Yes 81.0%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Xiaomi)
Yes 63.5%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Google)
Yes 53.5%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Z AI)
Yes 26.5%

Event Overview

On Dec 31, 2026 If X has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. X model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. X model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. X model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Kalshi markets are regulated by the CFTC and follow strict resolution procedures
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading
View full terms on Kalshi

Markets (18)

Sort
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (OpenAI)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (OpenAI)

If OpenAI has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome89.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic)

If Anthropic has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome81.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Xiaomi)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Xiaomi)

If Xiaomi has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome63.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Google)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Google)

If Google has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome53.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Z AI)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Z AI)

If Z AI has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome26.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Meta)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Meta)

If Meta has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome19.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Alibaba)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Alibaba)

If Alibaba has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome19.0%
Yes
Volume1.4K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (xAI)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (xAI)

If xAI (listed by Artificial Analysis as SpaceXAI) has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome16.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (DeepSeek)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (DeepSeek)

If DeepSeek has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome16.0%
Yes
Volume240 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Tencent)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Tencent)

If Tencent has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome14.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Moonshot AI)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Moonshot AI)

If Moonshot AI (listed by Artificial Analysis as Kimi) has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome11.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (MiniMax)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (MiniMax)

If MiniMax has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome8.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (StepFun)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (StepFun)

If StepFun has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome8.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (NVIDIA)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (NVIDIA)

If NVIDIA has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome7.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Mistral)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Mistral)

If Mistral has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome7.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Thinking Machines)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Thinking Machines)

If Thinking Machines has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (InclusionAI)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (InclusionAI)

If InclusionAI has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details
KALSHITech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (IBM)

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (IBM)

If IBM has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Yes outcome2.5%
Yes
Volume5.7K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 31, 2027
View Details

Share This Event

Share on social media or embed on your website

Back to Event Group