Clacton by-election margin of victory?

On Jul 8, 2026 If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK lose