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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Clacton by-election margin of victory?

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Clacton by-election margin of victory?

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16 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?	Kalshi	93%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?	Kalshi	92%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?	Kalshi	86%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?	Kalshi	83%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?	Kalshi	80%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 30%?	Kalshi	78%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 35%?	Kalshi	73%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 40%?	Kalshi	69%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 45%?	Kalshi	61%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 50%?	Kalshi	58%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 55%?	Kalshi	51%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 60%?	Kalshi	40%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 65%?	Kalshi	32%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 70%?	Kalshi	28%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 75%?	Kalshi	22%
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 80%?	Kalshi	15%

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93%

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About This Event

On Jul 8, 2026 If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK lose

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Clacton by-election margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 8, 2026

If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK lose

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 80% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share receive"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 80%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 70%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 65%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 60%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 55%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 45%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 35%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Clacton by-election margin of victory?

Volume$0.00

Markets16

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?

If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share receive

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?

If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share receive

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?

If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share receive

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?

If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 25% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share receive

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Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

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Events (1)

Clacton by-election margin of victory?

Markets (16)

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?

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Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

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Clacton by-election margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?

Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?

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