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How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

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How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?
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Vol

884.8 contracts

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Markets

7

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Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

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All Markets(7)
MarketOutcome price
Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 90.0%
Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 79.0%
Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 67.0%
Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 50.0%
Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 37.0%

Event Overview

Opening of the 120th Congress If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least X before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. X Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Market Resolution Rules

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Markets (7)

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KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 1 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome90.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 3 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome79.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 5 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome67.0%
Yes
Volume36.21 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome50.0%
Yes
Volume10.86 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 12 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome37.0%
Yes
Volume210.86 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 15 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 15 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 15 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome30.0%
Yes
Volume61.4 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will at least 20 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Will at least 20 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 20 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Yes outcome23.0%
Yes
Volume565.47 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details

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