Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

Reported volume

K 684.8 contracts

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How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

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K 684.8 contracts

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Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is At least 1 at 88%.

Kalshi

At least 188%
At least 377%
At least 562.5%
At least 844%
At least 1230%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

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Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	88.0%
Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	77.0%
Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	62.5%
Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	44.0%
Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	30.0%
Will at least 15 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	24.5%
Will at least 20 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	19.5%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 684.8 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Opening of the 120th Congress If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least X before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. X Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 684.8 contracts
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL8; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 10.86 contracts
Outcome Yes: 44.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 56.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Contract: Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 36.21 contracts
Outcome Yes: 62.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 37.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 5 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Contract: Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 77.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 23.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 3 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Contract: Will at least 20 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL20; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 565.47 contracts
Outcome Yes: 19.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 20 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Contract: Will at least 15 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 61.4 contracts
Outcome Yes: 24.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 75.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 15 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Contract: Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 10.86 contracts
Outcome Yes: 30.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 12 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Contract: Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESDEFECT-27FEB01-AL1; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 88.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 12.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 1 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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KALSHIElections

How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

Volume$684.80

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will at least 1 Democrat vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 88.0¢
No: 12.0¢

Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will at least 3 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 77.0¢
No: 23.0¢

Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 62.5¢
No: 37.5¢

Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will at least 8 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 44.0¢
No: 56.0¢

Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will at least 12 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 30.0¢
No: 70.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

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PM Yes 13.5%Rules differK Yes 97%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 95.7%Rules differK Yes 97%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 95.7%Rules differK Yes 46%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

246 saved comparisonsNext deadline Apr 17, 2027 UTC

KalshiPolitics

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

K 10.3K contracts

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?Yes 49.5%

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?Yes 47%

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?Yes 44.5%

+6 moreNext deadline May 30, 2027 UTC

KalshiPolitics

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

K 8.16M contracts

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?Yes 99.5%

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?Yes 99.5%

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?Yes 99.5%

+16 moreNext deadline Feb 3, 2027 UTC

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May 02, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

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