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Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes 67.0%

Vol36.21 contracts

SnapshotNov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

Yes 67.0%

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Event

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Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Part of: How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

YesYes Price

67.0¢

VolTotal Volume

36.21 contracts

Outcomes

Ends

May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC

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Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes

67.0¢

Vol

36.21 contracts

Outcomes

Trade

Yes67.0¢

No33.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 67.0%. Snapshot Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will at least 5 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot? · Yes

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Rules and settlement

Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 5 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

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Resolution Info