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How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?

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How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?

How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?
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435.05 contracts

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7

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Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

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7 markets tracked

Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

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All Markets(7)
MarketOutcome price
Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 83.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 74.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 60.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 46.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Yes 33.0%

Event Overview

Opening of the 120th Congress If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least X before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

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Markets (7)

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KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 243 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome83.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 246 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome74.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 249 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome60.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 252 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome46.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 255 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome33.0%
Yes
Volume435.05 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 258 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 258 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 258 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome14.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will Jeffries get at least 261 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Will Jeffries get at least 261 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 261 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateMay 02, 2027
View Details

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