Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?

Reported volume

K 435.05 contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?

Vol

K 435.05 contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is At least 243 at 83%.

Kalshi

At least 24383%
At least 24674%
At least 24960%
At least 25246%
At least 25533%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	83.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	74.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	60.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	46.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	33.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 258 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	14.0%
Will Jeffries get at least 261 votes on the first Speaker ballot?	Kalshi	5.5%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 435.05 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Opening of the 120th Congress If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least X before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 435.05 contracts
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 261 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL261; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 261 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 258 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL258; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 14.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 258 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL255; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 435.05 contracts
Outcome Yes: 33.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 67.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 255 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL252; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 46.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 54.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 252 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL249; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 60.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 40.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 249 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL246; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 74.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 26.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 246 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contract: Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJEFFRIESVOTES-27FEB01-AL243; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes-27feb01
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Listed close: May 2, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 83.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 17.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 243 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on it, and 0 if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
Votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on a later ballot
Votes recorded as Present or Not Voting, or cast for any other candidate

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?

Volume$435.05

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 83.0¢
No: 17.0¢

Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 74.0¢
No: 26.0¢

Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 60.0¢
No: 40.0¢

Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 46.0¢
No: 54.0¢

Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

kalshi

Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot?

Yes: 33.0¢
No: 67.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

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May 02, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC

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How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?

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