What is the current price for "California's 4th District margin of victory"?

The leading outcome "Yes" is currently trading at 74.5% probability.

How many markets are available for "California's 4th District margin of victory"?

There are 7 markets available for this event on Kalshi.

What is the trading volume for "California's 4th District margin of victory"?

Total trading volume is approximately $0K.

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California's 4th District margin of victory

Yes75%

Vol$255.00

Markets7

75%

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California's 4th District margin of victory

Name: California's 4th District margin of victory
Start: 2026-10-12T09:12:27.746Z
End: 2026-11-11T09:12:27.746Z

Part of: California's 4th District margin of victory

In 2026 If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first i

YesLeading Yes Probability

75%

VolTotal Volume

$255.00

Markets

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California's 4th District margin of victory

Yes

75%

Vol

$255.00

Markets

Trade

Market Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

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All Markets(7)

Market	Price
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?	75%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?	57%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?	36%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?	16%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?	5%

Markets (7)

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KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 25 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 30 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

California's 4th District margin of victory

California's 4th District margin of victory

California's 4th District margin of victory

Market Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

Rules & Resolution Criteria

Markets (7)

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 25 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 30 percentage points?

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