Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

California's 4th District margin of victory

Total Volume

$255.00

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California's 4th District margin of victory

Vol

$255.00

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $255.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $255.00

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?	Kalshi	75%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?	Kalshi	57%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?	Kalshi	36%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?	Kalshi	16%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 25 percentage points?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 30 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$255.00

Volume

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About This Event

In 2026 If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California's 4th District margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives  election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $255
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $255
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 30 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 25 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California's 4th District margin of victory

Volume$255.00

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

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California's 4th District margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

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Events (1)

California's 4th District margin of victory

Markets (7)

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

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California's 4th District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?

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