What is the current price for "When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?"?

The leading outcome "Yes" is currently trading at 61.7% probability.

How many markets are available for "When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?"?

There are 4 markets available for this event on Kalshi.

What is the trading volume for "When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?"?

Trading volume data is not currently available.

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When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Yes62%

Vol$0.00

Markets4

62%

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Event Group

EventKALSHI

Single EventKALSHIScience and Technology

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Name: When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Start: 2026-07-10T06:39:33.940Z
End: 2026-08-09T06:39:33.940Z

Part of: When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Quantum computer If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

YesLeading Yes Probability

62%

VolTotal Volume

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When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Yes

62%

Vol

$0.00

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Market Price Graph

4 markets tracked

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

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All Markets(4)

Market	Price
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)	62%
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)	57%
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)	38%
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)	4%

Markets (4)

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KALSHIOther

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.