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Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

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When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

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Market	Platform	Price
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)	Kalshi	62%
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)	Kalshi	57%
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)	Kalshi	38%
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)	Kalshi	4%

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Quantum computer If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Quantum computer

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2040): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

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KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.7¢No 38.3¢

KALSHIOther

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.7¢No 43.3¢

KALSHIOther

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.4¢No 61.6¢

KALSHIOther

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.4¢No 95.6¢

KALSHIOther

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

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Events (1)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Markets (4)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

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When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

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When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2040)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2035)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2030)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? (Before 2027)

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