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How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

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How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?
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Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

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Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?

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All Markets(7)
MarketOutcome price
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?
Yes 60.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029?
Yes 42.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029?
Yes 38.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029?
Yes 30.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029?
Yes 23.5%

Event Overview

Before Jan 20, 2029 If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 X vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question X vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

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Markets (7)

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KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome60.0%
Yes
Volume1.1K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome42.0%
Yes
Volume2.5K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome38.0%
Yes
Volume499.11 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome30.0%
Yes
Volume2.9K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome23.5%
Yes
Volume2.6K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome23.0%
Yes
Volume1.2K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details
KALSHIPolitics
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029?

If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Yes outcome12.0%
Yes
Volume1.7K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateApr 20, 2029
View Details

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