Market snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

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K 12.5K contracts

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How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

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K 12.5K contracts

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Snapshot from Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is At least 1 at 60%.

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At least 160%
At least 242%
At least 338%
At least 530%
At least 823.5%

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Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	60.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	42.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	38.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	30.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	23.5%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	23.0%
Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	12.0%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

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K 12.5K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

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Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 20, 2029 If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count. If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0. A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. The following do NOT count: The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021 X vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question X vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

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Event: How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 12.5K contracts
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL8; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 30.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 499.11 contracts
Outcome Yes: 38.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 62.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL2; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 42.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 58.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 12.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 77.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Contract: Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTRUMPGOPCONVICT-29JAN20-AL1; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpgopconvict-29jan20
Observed: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 20, 2029, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 60.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 40.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the vote occurs.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics