What is the current price for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"?

The leading outcome "No" is currently trading at 70.0% probability.

How many markets are available for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"?

There are 6 markets available for this event on Polymarket.

What is the trading volume for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"?

Total trading volume is approximately $242K.

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Name: How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Start: 2026-01-16T17:36:00.652Z
End: 2027-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Market	Price
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	47%
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?	30%
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	9%
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	4%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	1%

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan

Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan

Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan

Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan

Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan