Name: How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
End: 2027-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $988.12K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $988.12K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Poly	53%
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?	Poly	36%
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

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53%

Top Probability

$988.12K

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About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?questio

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2027 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?questio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcan"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $988.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $28.6K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 34.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $250.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $243.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $446.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $15.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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