
$235.22K
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$235.22K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
For the 2028 election If X announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign an exceptionally high probability to California Governor Gavin Newsom entering the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. On Kalshi, the contract "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Gavin Newsom)" is trading at 88 cents, implying an 88% chance. This price suggests the market views a Newsom candidacy as nearly certain, reflecting overwhelming confidence among traders in his political trajectory.
Several concrete factors justify this high market valuation. First, Newsom has systematically built a national profile through high-profile policy battles with Republican-led states and a sustained media presence, positioning himself as a leading party figure beyond California. Second, with President Joe Biden term-limited and Vice President Kamala Harris's potential 2024 outcome uncertain, the 2028 field appears open for a well-funded, establishment-aligned candidate, a role Newsom is actively preparing to fill. Third, his decisive victory in the 2021 recall election and 2022 re-election demonstrated durable political strength within the Democratic base, a key signal for future viability.
The primary risk to this consensus view is an unexpected decision by Newsom himself to forgo a presidential run, perhaps to remain in his gubernatorial role or pursue another office. A strong performance and subsequent incumbency advantage by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election could also reshape the 2028 landscape, potentially crowding out Newsom. Furthermore, the emergence of a compelling alternative Democratic standard-bearer before 2028, or a significant political scandal, could rapidly deflate his current odds. The market will be highly sensitive to any official statements from Newsom regarding his 2028 intentions, likely after the conclusion of the 2024 election cycle.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination represents the next major leadership contest for the United States' oldest active political party. This topic focuses on identifying which political figures will declare their candidacy to become the Democratic nominee for the 2028 presidential election, with the winner ultimately facing the Republican nominee in the general election. The nomination process will unfold through state primaries and caucuses beginning in early 2028, culminating at the Democratic National Convention where delegates formally select their presidential candidate. This early speculation about potential candidates reflects the extended timeline of modern presidential politics, where positioning often begins years before the actual election cycle. The 2028 race holds particular significance as it will be the first open Democratic presidential nomination since 2020, with no incumbent president or vice president automatically positioned as the frontrunner unless President Biden or Vice President Harris seek the nomination. Political observers are already analyzing potential candidates based on their current positions, fundraising networks, national profiles, and alignment with Democratic Party priorities including economic policy, climate change, healthcare, and social issues. The outcome will shape not only the 2028 election but also the future direction of the Democratic Party as it navigates demographic changes, ideological divisions, and evolving electoral challenges.
The Democratic presidential nomination process has evolved significantly since the party's establishment in 1828, with the modern primary system emerging after the tumultuous 1968 convention. That year, Vice President Hubert Humphrey secured the nomination without competing in primaries, sparking reforms that created the delegate selection rules still shaping today's contests. The 2008 Democratic primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton demonstrated how extended, competitive nomination battles could strengthen the eventual nominee, with Obama's victory marking the first time an African American secured a major party's presidential nomination. More recently, the 2020 Democratic primary featured the largest field of candidates in modern history, with 28 major candidates declaring their candidacy before Joe Biden ultimately secured the nomination after strong performances in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. Historically, sitting vice presidents have had mixed success seeking the Democratic nomination, with Al Gore winning it in 2000 after serving as Bill Clinton's vice president, while Walter Mondale secured it in 1984 after serving under Jimmy Carter. The timing of the 2028 race is particularly notable as it will mark eight years since the last truly open Democratic nomination, creating potential for significant ideological debates about the party's future direction. Past nomination contests have often turned on candidates' performances in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, though recent cycles have seen increased importance for South Carolina and Nevada in reflecting the party's diverse coalition.
The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will determine the political figure who represents the party's values, policy priorities, and vision for America's future on the national stage. This selection process matters profoundly because it shapes the alternative presented to American voters in the general election, influencing not only who might occupy the White House but also the direction of federal policy on issues ranging from climate change and healthcare to economic inequality and foreign relations. The nomination battle serves as a public forum for debating the Democratic Party's ideological identity, particularly the balance between progressive policies and moderate approaches needed to win national elections. Beyond the immediate electoral implications, the nomination process affects down-ballot races across the country, as the presidential nominee typically influences voter turnout, fundraising, and media attention for congressional and state-level Democratic candidates. The eventual nominee's demographic characteristics, geographic background, and political experience will signal which constituencies the party prioritizes and what leadership qualities it values most. Furthermore, the nomination contest tests Democratic Party unity and organizational strength ahead of the general election, with divisive primaries sometimes weakening nominees while competitive debates can strengthen them by vetting candidates and energizing the base.
As of late 2024, no major Democratic figures have formally declared candidacy for the 2028 presidential nomination, as political attention remains focused on the 2024 election cycle. However, behind-the-scenes positioning has already begun, with several potential candidates making strategic visits to early primary states, giving national media interviews, and building political action committees that could support future campaigns. Vice President Kamala Harris maintains the highest national profile among potential contenders, while governors like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Josh Shapiro have increased their visibility through policy speeches and media appearances addressing national issues. The Democratic National Committee has not yet released details about the 2028 primary calendar or debate schedule, though discussions continue about potentially reordering early states to better reflect the party's diversity. Fundraising networks are quietly being cultivated, with former 2020 candidates like Pete Buttigieg maintaining donor lists that could be activated for a future campaign. Political operatives are monitoring approval ratings, policy initiatives, and electoral performances of potential candidates, while party leaders emphasize the importance of unity behind President Biden's 2024 reelection effort before turning attention to the next nomination contest.
In recent election cycles, serious presidential candidates have typically announced their campaigns 12 to 18 months before the first primaries, which would mean late 2026 or early 2027 for the 2028 election. Some exploratory committees or testing-the-waters efforts might begin even earlier, particularly for lesser-known candidates needing more time to build name recognition and fundraising networks.
While historically rare, there is no constitutional or party rule preventing a sitting vice president from challenging an incumbent president in primary elections. However, such a scenario would represent a dramatic political rupture and has not occurred in the modern primary era, as vice presidents typically either support the incumbent's reelection or wait for an open nomination contest.
To secure the Democratic presidential nomination, a candidate must win a majority of pledged delegates at the national convention, which in 2020 required 1,991 of the 3,979 pledged delegates. If no candidate reaches this threshold on the first ballot, the convention becomes 'brokered' or 'contested,' with superdelegates then able to vote on subsequent ballots until a nominee is selected.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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33 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Gavin Newsom) | Kalshi | 88% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Shapiro) | Kalshi | 83% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Pete Buttigieg) | Kalshi | 80% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Ro Khanna) | Kalshi | 79% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Andy Beshear) | Kalshi | 78% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (J.B. Pritzker) | Kalshi | 76% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Chris Murphy) | Kalshi | 71% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Kalshi | 68% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Wes Moore) | Kalshi | 67% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Cory Booker) | Kalshi | 66% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Rahm Emanuel) | Kalshi | 65% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Ruben Gallego) | Kalshi | 55% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Jared Polis) | Kalshi | 52% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Mark Kelly) | Kalshi | 51% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Kalshi | 47% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Kamala Harris) | Kalshi | 41% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Jon Ossoff) | Kalshi | 35% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Phil Murphy) | Kalshi | 35% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Elissa Slotkin) | Kalshi | 30% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Mark Cuban) | Kalshi | 27% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (John Fetterman) | Kalshi | 26% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Dean Phillips) | Kalshi | 26% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Raphael Warnock) | Kalshi | 26% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Chris Van Hollen) | Kalshi | 25% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Roy Cooper) | Kalshi | 25% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Stephen A. Smith) | Kalshi | 24% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Jon Stewart) | Kalshi | 18% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Hunter Biden) | Kalshi | 12% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Tim Walz) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Abigail Spanberger) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Michelle Obama) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Barack Obama) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? (Hillary Clinton) | Kalshi | 3% |
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